EARTHQUAKE GEOLOGY, DAMAGE, TYPES, ENERGY AND PREDICTION EFFORTS

EARTHQUAKES

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Tokyo 1923
Japan is riddled with faults and is located at the junction of four tectonic plates. In the last 75 years, the Japanese archipelago or areas immediately offshore have experienced five earthquakes measuring more than eight on the Richter scale; and 17 measuring more than seven on the Richter scale. It is unusual for a year to go by without three or four earthquakes measuring 6.0 or more.

Japan accounts for about 20 percent of the earthquakes of magnitude 6 or greater on the Richter scale. Each day about 1,000 tremors that can be felt are produced in Japan. Each year nearly ten percent of the energy released in the world in earthquakes is centered around Japan. In the last century Japan has experienced 25 destructive earthquakes. In some places small earthquakes are felt on a weekly and even daily basis. One journalist wrote that "Japan is always living on the edge of one disaster or another."

The Japanese seismic scale is slightly different from the Richter scale used in the United States and elsewhere in the world. The Japanese scale has maximum intensity of 7 and measures earthquake based on the amount of damage caused. The destructive Kobe earthquake in 1995 measured 6.9 on the Richter scale and 7 on the Japanese scale.

For an earthquake to be regarded as major enough to get a name it must destroy at least 100 houses, and measure more than 7 on the Richter scale or have an intensity of more than 5 on the Japanese scale.

Websites and Resources

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major fault in Japan
Links in this Website: VOLCANOS AND JAPAN Factsanddetails.com/Japan ; MAJOR VOLCANOS AND ERUPTIONS IN JAPAN Factsanddetails.com/Japan ; EARTHQUAKES AND JAPAN Factsanddetails.com/Japan ; EARTHQUAKES AND LIFE IN JAPAN Factsanddetails.com/Japan ; LARGE EARTHQUAKES IN JAPAN Factsanddetails.com/Japan ; KOBE EARTHQUAKE OF 1995 Factsanddetails.com/Japan ; LARGE EARTHQUAKES IN JAPAN IN THE 2000s Factsanddetails.com/Japan ; TSUNAMIS IN JAPAN Factsanddetails.com/Japan

Good Websites and Sources: U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Earthquake Information Center earthquake.usgs.gov ; Wikipedia article on Earthquakes Wikipedia ; Earthquake severity pubs.usgs.gov ; USGS Earthquake Frequently Asked Questions earthquake.usgs.gov/learn/faq ; Collection of Images from Historic Earthquakes Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Center, Jan Kozak Collection ; World Earthquake Map iris.edu/seismon ; Most Recent Earthquakes earthquake.usgs.gov ; Interactive Earthquake Guide guardian.co.uk ; USGS Earthquakes for Kids earthquake.usgs.gov/learn/kids ; Earthquake Preparedness and Safety Surviving an Earthquake edu4hazards.org ; Earthquake Pamphlet pubs.usgs.gov ; Earthquake Preparedness Guide earthquakepreparednessguide.com ; Earthquake Safety Site earthquakecountry.info ;

Earthquake Information for Japan Earthquake Information from Japan Meteorological Agency jma.go.jp/en/quake ; F-Net Broadband Seismography Network fnet.bosai.go.jp ; USGS Japan Earthquake Information earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/world ; Tectonics and Volcanos of Japan volcano.oregonstate.edu ; MCEER Earthquake Engineering on Major Earthquakes in Japan in the 20th Century mceer.buffalo.edu ; Major Earthquakes in Japan in the 20th Century drgeorgepc.com ; Sesimic Hazard Map earthquake.usgs.gov ; Earthquake Density Map earthquake.usgs.gov ; Seismicity Map earthquake.usgs.gov ; Blogs About Japanese Earthquakes blogged.com/topics/japan-earthquake ; Geological Maps aist.go.jp/GSJ ; Earthquake Engineering and Disaster Prevention: Disaster Prevention Research Institute, University of Kyoto dpri.kyoto-u.ac.jp/web ; Japan Association of Earthquake Engineering jaee.gr.jp/english ; Earthquake Preparedness in Japan Earthquake Preparedness Survey whatjapanthinks.com ;U.S. Embassy Disaster Preparedness Checklist tokyo.usembassy.gov ; U.K. Embassy on Earthquake Preparedness v ; Report on Fastening Furniture pdf file iiasa.ac.at/Research/RAV ;Earthquake Preparedness Guide earthquakepreparednessguide.com ;

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Turkey in 1999
Earthquake Research in Japan: Headquarters of Earthquake Research Promotion jishin.go.jp ; Active Fault Research Center unit.aist.go.jp ; Institute of Geology and Geoinformation unit.aist.go.jp ; Tokai Earthquake Prediction from Japan Meteorological Agency jma.go.jp/en/quake_tokai ;Research Center for Earthquake Prediction, University of Kyoto rcep.dpri.kyoto-u.ac.jp ; Earthquake Prediction Research Center, Tokyo University eri.u-tokyo.ac.jp/ ; Earthquake and Science Museums Shinagawa City Disaster Prevention site city.shinagawa.tokyo.jp ; Earthquake Museum (Kita Ward, near the Nishigahara Station on the Naboku subway line), Tokyo Essentials tokyoessentials.com ; Honjo Life Safety Learning Center (Sumida Ward) simulates an earthquake and fire in a 3-D theater. There is also a room that simulates a storm with wind sped of 30 meters per second. Tokyo City PDF file bousai.metro.tokyo.jp

Recent Earthquakes in Japan : USGS Last Earthquake in Japan neic.usgs.gov/neis/last_event/world_japan ; Recent Earthquakes eri.u-tokyo.ac.jp ; Info for the Previous Week jma.go.jp/en/quake ; Major Earthquakes in Japan Wikipedia List of Earthquakes in Japan Wikipedia ; USGS Historic Earthquakes earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/world/historical ;Major Earthquakes in Japan in the 20th Century drgeorgepc.com ; 1923 Tokyo Earthquake: 1923 Tokyo Earthquake Images eas.slu.edu/Earthquake_Center ; Great Kanto earthquake of 1923 dl.lib.brown.edu/kanto ; 1923 Tokyo Earthquake Photo Gallery japan-guide.com ; Earthquake Pictures: Earthquake Image Archive geot.civil.metro-u.ac.jp ; BBC Pictures of 2007 Niigata Earthquake BBC Pictures of 2007 Niigata Earthquake ; Kobe Earthquake Site seismo.unr.edu ;

Earthquake Mythology in Japan

According to Japanese mythology earthquakes are caused by the thrashing movement of namazu (giant catfish), who has the power to generate tremors on both land and sea. One way to prevent earthquakes, the Japanese believe, is to knock the fish on the head with a gourd. After a devastating earthquake in the 1850s many people in Japan put up pictures of a KO'd catfish on the doors of their house for protection.

The first earthquake, the Japanese Creation Myth goes, occurred after the Goddess Susanowo came out of her cave to bring light to the Earth. The eight million dancing deities of nature were so enchanted by her presence that they shook the earth with their exclamations of happiness.

Earthquake Geology

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Haitian national palace
An earthquake is a shaking of the ground. It occurs when large masses of rock suddenly change position. Earthquakes and tremors (small earthquakes) are occurring somewhere around the globe all the time. Some cause a little shaking and people barely know what's going on. Other cause catastrophic damage.

Earthquakes killed 1.8 million worldwide between 1900 and 2005. Hundreds of thousands have died in single events. No other natural events have caused as much destruction in human history and no other events occur with such suddenness and capriciousness. They only thing that ranks with them are catastrophic volcanic eruptions and tsunamis. The former occur with much less frequency and are easier to predict than earthquakes. The latter are generally caused by earthquakes. If anything the destructive power of earthquakes increases as time goes buy as the number of people living in earthquake-prone areas increase even as technology to help them improves.

Earthquakes usually occur on faults, massive cracks or fractures that usually are located around places that tectonic plates meet. The hypocenter or focus is the center of the energy of an earthquake, or where the earthquake originates below the surface of the earth. The epicenter is point in the earth's surface directly above the hypocenter.

Seismic Waves

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The energy of an earthquake is emitted in the form of shock (seismic) waves. There are two kinds of seismic waves: interior ones, which travel through the earth; and surface ones, which travel along the surface. Surface waves are the most damaging to humans.

Seismic waves that affect the surface are divided into P-waves and S-waves. P-waves, or primary waves, are faster and reach the surface first. They alternately compress and expand the rock which they pass through but pack relatively little energy. S-waves, or secondary waves, come later and move particles and rock from side to side perpendicular to the direction they are traveling. They are much stronger and destructive and can produce intense vibrations that rip buildings off their foundations, churn soils into molasses and cause roofs to fall on people.

Both P and S waves produce heaving and rolling surface waves, which are usually most intense along the ruptured fault and weaken as they move away from the epicenter. The seismic echos of these waves that move through the earth and along the surface. can picked up by instruments around the globe. Scientists can locate the hypocenter and epicenter of a given earthquake by comparing the arrival times of the P-waves and S-waves received at different seismic stations in different locations.

Causes of Earthquakes

Most earthquakes occur along cracks in the earth called faults. Some fault are nice neat lines that are visible from planes and outer space. Other are more complex, resembling a shattered or cracked window. Faults visible from the sky easy to locate. Others are less obvious and require some defective work to locate.

The heaviest concentrations of faults are found in places where tectonic plates meet. Along major faults, tectonic plates moves at rate of about eight or nine feet a century, or 1.3 inches a year, which is roughly about the same speed as fingernail growth.

If the movement of tectonic plates or block of earth along faults was steady and smooth earthquakes would not occur. But that is not what happens. Friction keeps the plates together until enough pressure builds up to cause the plates to suddenly lurch. When this happens energy that causes earthquakes is released.

If a small segment of a tectonic plate moves an earthquake with a magnitude of less than 6 occurs. When a large segment, or several small segments rupture, a major earthquake over 7 often occurs. Similar process are taking place with blocks of earth along smaller fault in the general area of where the tectonic plates meet.

Many earthquakes occur along subduction zone, where oceanic plates meet continental plates. Here the denser ocean plate pushes beneath the continental plate. The constant movement and pressure causes earthquakes. Earthquakes also occur along extension zones, where the crust is stretched by subduction. They have also been caused by volcanic eruptions, atomic bob blasts and even dynamite blasted from geological exploration.

For centuries scholars and thinkers have speculated about their causes and mechanisms of earthquakes. Aristotle likened them to the Earth passing gas while the Japanese speculated they were caused by a giant fish wriggling under the Earth’s surface.

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tectonic plates

Causes of Earthquakes in Japan

The four major plates that merge under Japan are: 1) the Eurasian Plate, 2) the Philippine Sea Plate, 3) the Pacific Plate and 4) the North American Plate. Most earthquakes occur along two plate boundaries near Japan's Pacific coast, where the Eurasian Plate and the Philippine Sea Plate meet and the Eurasian Plate and Pacific Plate collide.

Three plates move in three directions three miles beneath the streets of Tokyo. The Pacific Plate is the fastest moving. It subducts about four inches a year below the North American Plate and the Philippine Plate. The stress is taken up by strong shallow earthquakes off the east coast of Japan.

Earthquakes along Eurasian Plate and the Philippine Sea Plate are regarded as particularly dangerous because lots of people live there and a lot of friction build up as the Philippine Sea Plate slides at a rate of 5 millimeters a year under the Eurasian Plate. This boundary passes directly under Shizuoka before making a U-turn at Mt. Fuji and returning to the sea at Sagami Bay off Yokohama, the epicenter of the great 1923 quake.

Many earthquakes that affect Japan originate far out at sea with their epicenters deep under the ocean floor. Other occur deep under the earth’s crust.

Types of Earthquakes

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A strike-slip, or transform, fault earthquake is a sudden lateral movement of one rock mass against another at fault in response to plate tectonic forces. During a large earthquake of this sort the rock masses on either side a fault can lurch 10 feet or more in opposite directions. Strike-slip faults are where blocks of earth slide past each other laterally. The plates lock together as pressure builds until the plates surge past each other and cause an earthquake.

A reverse fault earthquake is caused by the compression of a subduction zone. Thrust faults occur where blocks of earth collide at an angle and one block shifts upward. A normal fault earthquake is caused by the normal extension of a crustal extension where plates pull apart.

Aftershocks are earthquakes that occur after a major earthquake. They complete the crustal movement initiated by the original earthquake and are usually much smaller than the original earthquake but that is not always the case. Some are as powerful or almost powerful as the original. Aftershocks can occur minutes, hours, days and even years after original.

Megathrust earthquake are destructive earthquakes that occur when two plates collide. Earthquakes of this type can reach a level of 9 or more on the Richter scale while the largest earthquakes that occur on faults like the San Andreas fault can only reach a level of 8 on the Richter scale. The earthquake that caused the tsunami in Indonesia in 2004 and the 9.2 earthquake in Alaska in 1964 were a megathrust earthquake Subduction faults are usually angled at about 10 to 15 percent. Faults like San Andreas fault are roughly vertical. There is a much larger locked area with subduction zones, creating much more energy when the plates unlock

Measuring Earthquakes

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seismograph
Earthquakes are measured using the Richter scale, named after the American geologist Charles Richter (1900-1985), who invented the scale. The Richter scale is base-10 logarithmic. Earthquakes receive a rating of between 0 to 10. Each whole number increase represents a tenfold increase in ground movement. Thus a 7.0 scale earthquake is ten times stronger than a 6.0 one.

Earthquakes measuring three or four on the Richter scale can be felt. Ones measuring five can cause some damage. Those rating more than six can be destructive. Those measuring more than 7 can cause great damage and many death. Earthquakes above eight are often catastrophic. The most powerful earthquakes ever recorded measured 9 and above. No 10 earthquake has ever been recorded. The destructive power of an earthquake often has more to do with where it occurs than how strong it is.

The magnitude and intensity of earthquakes are measured with a devise called a seismograph, which records the peaks of the seismic waves. A seismograph consist of a stylus on a pendulum and a rotating drum. During an earthquake the drum moves up and down while the stylus on the pendulum remains stable.

There are 140 stations in 89 countries checking for earthquakes. The data is sifted through by 268 experts who look for secret nuclear tests as well as earthquakes. The network was set up in the 1990s and reached full global coverage in 2004. The number of stations is expect to reach 321 by 2010. The budget is $105 million. The clearing house for the data is in Vienna, where not coincidently the main United Nations nuclear watchdog agency is located.

Vibrations from earthquake and nuclear tests can be picked very far away. The instruments use to measure them are so sensitive they picked up the break up of the Columbia space shuttle in 2003 and the undersea collapse of the Russian submarine Kursk in 2000. The network that looks for nuclear explosions has 170 stations that detect underground shock waves, 11 that scan for undersea explosions as well 80 that sniff the air for radioactivity and 60 that listen for loud sounds in the atmosphere. In May 1998, shock waves from India’s nuclear test was picked up at 11 stations.

Earthquake Energy

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Richter scale measurement
The energy released by a 6.7 earthquake is roughly equal the energy released by a one megaton hydrogen bomb. Sometimes when scientists looking for secret nuclear tests pick up something they are not sure whether it is a nuclear explosion or an earthquake. One way they can tell is by carefully examining the shock waves recorded on a seismograph. A magnitude 6.7. earthquake begins gently and suddenly becomes more violent. A nuclear explosion of similar magnitude begins with a sharp spike, followed by aftershocks.

Large earthquakes usually create a visible crack or a displacement of surface rocks and soil and cause the fault to shift at a rate of about two miles per second. The San Francisco earthquake in 1906, which measured 7.8 on the Richter scale, caused movement along 270-mile section of fault that ranged from 6 feet to 16 feet.

Shock waves from earthquakes travel farther in places where the crust is made of old rock, but fortunately these are the places where earthquake are least likely to happen. In areas of new crust generation where earthquakes occur more frequently there are larger amounts of sand, clay and gravel. Shock waves don’t travel as far in these materials but they do more damage by concentrating their forces and causing a lot of shaking.

Earthquakes and Geology

Earthquakes originate below the surface of the earth in places called nucleation sites. Shallow earthquakes are more likely to cause extensive damage than deep ones. Most damaging earthquakes have a hypocenter that is less than six miles below the surface. Although deep quakes usually cause less catastrophic damage to a specific area than a shallower ones they often cause damage over a broader area.

In places where there has been a lot of tectonic activity---where rocks have been folded and mix---earthquake waves radiate outward inefficiently and thus earthquakes tend be very destructive near their epicenters but not far way from it. Earthquakes at the center of plates are often more destructive because the rock has not been folded and mixed so much and is more uniform and conducive to transporting waves over long distances.

Rock and soil types can make a big difference in an earthquake. Bedrock offers a measure of stability. It helps to dampen the shaking from a quake. Sediment and loose soils on the other hand amplify the shaking. In a given earthquake the shaking can be ten times stronger in loose soil than it is over bedrock.

Many earthquakes form rising and falling bumps in the soil and sediments called oscillations that can cause sever damage. On reclaimed land or soil saturated with water, the soil can liquify and begin to flow and shake with even more extreme violence. This occurs because during intense shaking solid particles in soft muds, silts and wet land move downward, while water shoots up at great pressure.

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Tokyo 1923

Earthquake Damage

Earthquakes with a magnitude of more than 7 on the Richter scale strike 20 times a year somewhere in the world. But these are not necessarily the most destructive earthquakes. The biggest factor in determining earthquake damage and destruction is location, location and location. Earthquakes that strike populated area are going to cause more death and destruction than ones that occur in unpopulated areas.

Some of the most damaging and deadly earthquakes---the one that killed 250,000 people in Tangshen China and the ones in Lisbon and Missouri---occurred is places where no one though a major earthquake would happen and the victims were caught totally unprepared.

Earthquake damage is also often more of a matter of architecture and affluence than the strength of the earthquake. In developing countries the houses are often shoddily built. In the worst case they are made of stones held together with weak mortar and topple easy, crushing people when they do. That is why a 6.0 earthquake in Armenia could kill 26,000 people and a 7.1 one in San Francisco could kill 62.

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Visible uplift along the fault that caused the great earthquake in central japan in 1891

The damage from an earthquake is often very spotty. Neighborhoods that have been totally destroyed often six next to ones that look untouched. The reason depends on a number of factors including construction methods, maintenance, soil stability, fault lines in the underlying rock, and location of gas lines.

Some deaths are attributed directly to the earthquake. Many more often die in mudslides, landslides, and tsunamis generated by the quake or in the harsh conditions that follow it. Landslides block roads, leaving thousands with food and shelter. Disease spread; no medical help is available.

Fires often cause the most damage. Sometimes the fires are so hot the can melt steel and ignite fires 40 meters away. Many start when stoves topple over or gas lines break. Often the fires burn out of control because water main are broken and not enough people can be mobilized to put them out.

Earthquake Liquefaction

Liquefaction is a phenomenon where pockets of stable sand underground are shaken by an earthquake and mixed with groundwater. As a result, the soil becomes sludgy and unstable. In some cases, muddy water reaches the surface. Because the ground foundation suddenly becomes soft, buildings may sink or tilt. Tilted houses, rippled pavement, broken pipes are all problems associated with liquefaction. [Source: Akio Oikawa and Shogo Hara, Yomiuri Shimbun , October 18, 2012]

Liquefaction pushes up manholes and wrecking homes and roads and leaves houses and power poles tilting. Watery sand can gush up from the ground during the earthquake formed piles up to 30 centimeters deep. Ground subsidence of up to 50 centimeters, which destroyed underground water and sewerage pipes. If the shaking from an earthquake continues for a long time, the ground where the liquefaction is most severe can keep shaking even after liquefaction occurrs, expanding the scope of damage.

Liquefaction occurs when saturated sandy ground, such as that found in reclaimed land and marshes, is loosened by a strong earthquake. The unconsolidated sand becomes like muddy water. This muddy water gushes up through cracks and opening in sidewalks and roads, and then drains away to leave the sand on the ground. Foundations can be fixed by jacking up a house and doing the repairs. But with the lingering threat of aftershocks, the land could be vulnerable to more damage. Leaving a house as it is, however, could leave it beyond salvaging if liquefaction strikes again.

Earthquake Damage and Buildings

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leaning building at Kobe in 1995 due
to liquification of soil
About 80 percent of all earthquake deaths occur in collapsed building. Many of these would have been avoided if the buildings were properly constructed. One geophysicist told the New York Times, "Buildings kill people not earthquakes."

Structures built on rock suffer high-frequency vibrations that may not topple the building but can cause enough structural faults to make it unsafe. Buildings on softer soils need special braces because the building can resonate with the quake and vibrate part.Buildings on reclaimed land or soil saturated with water are particularly vulnerable because the soil can liquify and shake extremely violently, causing entire building to lean, sink or topple.

Unreinforced buildings sway from side to side and if the earthquake is powerful enough give way and collapse. The joints where H-shaped steel beams are welded to the main pillars are typically the most vulnerable spots of a building. Seismic energy converges on the joints which can crack under the force.

Old wooden houses are shaken off their foundations, causing roofing and unsecured items to topple on residents. High rises are designed to sway. They often remain standing and keep their occupants alive but suffer from broken windows and cracked girders and sometimes have to be torn down.

Mid-rise buildings---especially ones with unreinforced masonry are often the most dangerous places to be. Their rigid walls tend to crack and crumble rather than sway. After a large earthquake many of the welded joints give way under the stress and the building tilts, and sometimes collapse, sometimes killing most of the people inside.

People trapped inside collapsed buildings without food and water or adequate supplies rarely survive under the rubble for more than three or four days. Without water, especially in the summer heat, people are claimed by dehydration. After earthquakes villagers sometimes spend months sleeping in their beds outdoors until the threat passes.

Earthquake Damage and Infrastructure

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Kobe 1995
Unprotected electric power lines, waiter mains and gas lines rupture, causing power outages, fires and flooding. Roads and bridges give way as a result of the shaking and swaying. Damage not only causes immediate deaths and casualties but hampers rescue efforts, causing more deaths.

Land line communications are disrupted hampering rescue efforts even more. Hospitals with structural damage and power outages have a hard time maintain a normal functioning level, let alone keeping up with the high numbers of casualties that pour in.

In large cities, subways and trains can become derailed; tunnels and stations can crack, collapse or become flooded. Tunnels are particularly vulnerable where one ground material change into another such as between rock and soil. Damages can be catastrophic if an oil refinery or chemical factory near a populated area explodes or catch fire. Even worse is if a levee system or a dam upstream from a populated area collpases.

Another big hassle is a shortage of toilets.

Earthquake Damage and Buildings in the Developing World

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Adobe structure destroyed
by an earthquake
Many victims of earthquakes in the developing world die because they were caught inside poor housing. Masonry structures with mud brick or concrete blocks walls and clay tile roofs are regarded as death traps. Common on the developing world, they are not built to sway or move in an earth quake and often have floors added in a piecemeal fashion. Even an earthquake of moderate strength is enough to break the brittle walls and supports. The materials are bulky and have trouble absorbing shock and can kill because the materials are so heavy.

Many buildings are little more than unreinforced masonry piles. Stone walls and concrete roofs are a particularly nasty combination. In an earthquake, the stones crumble, the walls give way and the heavy concrete roof collapses, causing serious injury or death to anyone caught underneath.

Mud brick houses are often the most deadly. Unlike houses made of concrete and wood that collapsed in jumbles and leave gaps for survivors, mud brick homes tend to crumble in piles. Many people died from being crushed; other suffocate from the weight of the brick on top of them, lack of air and breathing in dust. Mud bricks are a popular building material because they are cheap and warm in the winter and cool in the summer.

Apartments with little or no steel in the concrete pillars are among the deadliest structure of all. Under the heavy weight, the floors collapse, pancake style, and crush or trap the people inside.

Houses with wooden frames are much more vulnerable to collapse than ones with steel frames. But Even houses with steel frames are vulnerable to collapse if steel pieces are poorly welded. Even when building codes are followed buildings collapse because material are of poor quality and the walls and ceilings are poorly tied together.

Earthquake Prediction

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San Fransisco earthquake in 1906
Earthquakes are more likely to happen in seismically active areas that have not had an earthquake for a while. Geologists can predict with some accuracy that there is certain possibility that an earthquake will occur in a general area within a period of years of decades but can not say with any accuracy when and exactly where it will occur.

As a rule efforts to predict earthquakes have been largely fruitless. It is not known whether they can be predicted. Comets have traditionally been regarded harbingers of earthquakes. Before earthquakes animals have burst out of barns and run out of houses. Some scientists may be due to the fact that they are sensitive to static electricity in the air.

To anticipate, predict and prepare for earthquakes, scientist rely heavily on data from past events. Much of earthquakes forecasting involves taking elaborate maps of fault zones and make forecast of the probability of an earthquakes occurring in a certain place within a certain number of years.

Scientists in California have figured out a way to get a few second warning of an earthquake by detecting fast-moving P-waves before the destructive S-waves arrive. Sixty kilometers away from the epicenter this can translate to a 20 second warning, enough for people to take actions which could save their lives. The Japanese have developed a tremor-detection system that sends out data to the media and other sources once the P-waves have been detected.

A team led Vladimir Kellis-Borko, a geophysicist at UCLA, predicted earthquakes in San Simeoen and Hokkaido Japan in the second half of 2003 looking at chains of minor earthquakes and comparing them with the earthquake history of a specific area. By examining clusters of these quakes in a five year period he was able to predict the likelihood of a major earthquake in an area within five months.

In July 2005, scientists wrote in the Geographic Society Bulletin that had found a shelled amoeba that can help predict earthquakes. Evidence based on examination of core samples from the time that major earthquakes took place suggests that the amoeba changes in certain shallow coastal areas five to 10 years before a megathrust earthquake takes place. The amoebas seemed to change in response to slight elevation and saltwater changes along the coast that took place years before the major earthquake.

Earthquake Prediction in Japan

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earth movement
measuring devise
Japan spends about $110 million a year on earthquake prediction studies. Earthquake monitoring devises include observation wells more than a mile deep, east and west of Tokyo, with meters that can detect movements in the earth's crust.

Japan has been making regular seismic observations since 1885. Groundwater is checked for increased concentrations of radon, which some scientists say is an indicator of an imminent earthquake. Monitoring plate activity is made difficult by the large amount of noise generated by factories, trains and vehicles.

Some Japanese scientist think they can predict the next major earthquake based on the periodic movement of the crust in certain areas of region before an earthquake. A very large earthquake hits the Tokyo on average of once every 69 years. The Japanese are also studying animal behavior as prediction method. Before the Kobe earthquake, fish reportedly swam near the surface of the sea and pigeons and crows flew in crazy patterns.

Laboratory experiments indicate that major fractures of rock are preceded by “pre-slips” in which the rock gives a little before it buckles. Scientists hope to pick up the pre-slips before a large earthquake and give people an advanced warning. Many scientists are skeptical as to whether these pre-slips do indeed exists and if they do exist how they can be distinguished from mundane daily tremors.

Earthquake Monitors in Japan

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monitoring instruments
Japan’s Meteorological Agency is responsible for monitoring earthquakes. The Matsuhiroo Seismological Observatory, which is mainly consists of tunnels containing of earthquake observation devices in a mountains in Nagano Prefecture, can detect earthquakes and nuclear tests from around the globe.

The Japanese government is currently installing underground seismometers between a dozen and several hundred meters underground as part of its set up to give scientists a better idea of when big quakes are likely to occur plus offer instantaneous warnings when earthquakes occur. When the system is completed in 2014, major active faults in 110 locations nationwide will be monitors.

Ground meters that are designed to pick up such pre-slips have been placed all over the Tokai area to pick up signs of a potentially dangerous earthquake there. If one or two meters show anomalies schoolchildren may be sent home. If three occur the country is put on high alter and police, soldiers and firefighter are put on high alert to act immediately and the Prime Minister will go on television to announce that an earthquake is imminent.

More than 1,000 permanent GPS instruments have installed throughout Japan have discovered episodic, slow-slip events along subduction zones. Maps have been produced that show where large earthquakes are most likely to occur. In addition, a number of stress meters have been installed in the area straddling Aichi and Shizuoka Prefectures in attempt to predict or at least get a warning of powerful Tokai earthquake.

Yet, with all this, more than two decades after Tokyo established an Earthquake Assessment Committee no public warning of an earthquake has ever been issued.

Study of Earthquakes

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Seismograms
To study earthquakes scientists break rocks in laboratories to measure stress levels; consult tree rings for clues on ancient tsunamis; dig trenches along faults for signs of pre-earthquake stress; and attach senors to fault zones to get some ideas of what precedes an earthquake. The study of earthquakes as we know it began after the San Francisco earthquake with areal photography of the San Andreas fault and publication in 1908 of the theory of “elastic rebound” which explained the dynamics of earthquakes that fit nicely with theories about plate tectonics that were developed in the 1960s.

Using satellite-based synthetic aperture radar (SAR) interferometry scientists can observe ground movements with stunning accuracy during an earthquake. With the help of satellites, aircraft-based LIDAR lasers and global positioning systems (GPS) scientists can accurately monitor specific locations; observe long-term warping and swelling and movement along faults; and detect the slow movements of plates within the thickness of a fingernail.

Scientists use maps of faults that show areas of high stress in one color and areas of little stress in a different color. After an earthquake the maps have to be redrawn because often stress has been reduced in one some places but is more intense in others.

Earthscope is an ambitious $200 million initiative by the National Science Foundation that includes the San Andreas Fault Observatory, the Plat Boundary Observatory, a network of 1,000 GPS receivers at 200 sites along the boundary of colliding plate sin western North America; the United States Seismic Array, a network of seismic stations across the United States; and Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar.

Seismic tomography, similar to CT scans, map structures deep in the Earth using measurements of earthquake shock waves.

Drilling Into Faults

To study the physics of earthquake processes, scientists have drilled two miles deep into the San Andreas fault and installed instruments such seismometers, thermal sensors, strainmeters, and fluid pressure transducers that send data to the surface with fiber optic cables. The hole has been bored into a transition area of the fault between an area where small earthquakes occur relatively frequently and an area where larger ones occur less frequently.

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Cascadia earthquake sources

The goal is to study places in a fault where the Earthquakes are actually generated. All faults are relatively weak at the surface, The action along them takes place deep in the Earth. The hole goes down vertically for the first 1.4 miles and then angles eastwards towards the fault at 50 degree for another 1.8 miles.

Measurements of temperature, pressure, and chemical composition of minerals are taken. One of the big questions that scientist hope to answer is why rocks in deep in fault sheer under much lower stresses than surface rocks do in the laboratory. Possible explanations for this are: 1) there is something unique about the composition of the rock in the nucleation sites that is different than rocks studied at the surface; 2) water pressure deep underground is higher than expected, creating lubrication that allows the rocks to slip easily. Scientist are asked by journalist all the time if the drilling causes earthquakes. They insist it doesn’t.

Japanese and American scientists are using a drilling ship to bore into the Nankai trough, a subduction zone off the coast of southern Japan, t install instrument at great depths in the hole like those places in the hole at San Andreas Fault. Drilling is scheduled to begin 2007.

See Earthquake Warnings

20120530-Quake_epicenters_1963-98.png
Quake epicenters 1963-98

Image Sources: Mostly Earthquake Research Institute, University of Tokyo (Japan pictures), USGS (non-Japan pictures) except Tokyo 1923 (J.B. Macelwane Archives, St. Louis University) and Kobe 1995 (Kobe University). Also Wikimedia Commons

Text Sources: New York Times, Washington Post, Los Angeles Times, Daily Yomiuri, Times of London, Japan National Tourist Organization (JNTO), National Geographic, The New Yorker, Time, Newsweek, Reuters, AP, Lonely Planet Guides, Compton’s Encyclopedia and various books and other publications.

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© 2009 Jeffrey Hays

Last updated January 2013

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