CLIMATE CHANGE IN ASIA
According to a report of the Working Group II of the U.N.”s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) grain harvests in the Asian region could drop by as much as 30 percent, leading to skyrocketing food prices and the starvation of 132 million people in Asia in the 2050s, if fossil fuels continue to be consumed at the current rate. Countries with ric-growing flood plains off major river and near coastal areas could loose vast tracts of agricultural land to rising sea levels. [Source: Yomiuri Shimbun, March 29, 2007]
The report found that many Asian areas, including Japan and eastern Russia, have already seen a decline in grain harvests, a phenomenon that will make it more difficult for developing countries to meet their growing demand for food.In addition to rising temperatures caused by climate change, chronic flooding, heat waves and droughts are behind the falling harvests, the report says.
In the future, grain harvests will drop by between 2.5 percent and 10 percent in the 2020s, and 5 percent to 30 percent in the 2050s, compared with the amount harvested in 1990, the report says. Even if the mercury rises by just 0.5 C in winter, the wheat harvest in India would be badly affected, the report says.
In the event the temperature rises 2 C, rice harvests in China could plunge by between 5 percent and 12 percent, according to the report. Higher seawater temperatures in the area spreading from East Asia to Southeast Asia would drastically change fish habitats, with minnows in tropical seas most at risk, which would see fish catches decline.The melting of glaciers in the Himalayas, which serve as a natural dam, would lead to a scenario that could threaten the life of more than 700 million people who rely on meltwater, the report warns. The report predicts that if the Himalayan glaciers continue melting at the current speed, they will have almost vanished by 2035.
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Climate Change in Southeast Asia
Melting Himalayan glaciers is one of the costs of climate change. Southeast Asia will suffer the impact of long-term water shortages resulting from this in part because it doesn’t have so many dams and reservoirs to store water. Water provided from rivers during the spring melt is particularly vital because it often needed for irrigation during the dry season.
According to an Asian Development Bank study: Over the coming decades, climate change will lead to decreasing rainfall in many parts of Southeast Asia, and millions will suffer from water shortages. Rice production from the region, the world's rice bowl, will appreciably decline, threatening food security. Vast tracts of high-quality forests will give way to tropical savannah and scrub land. Floods, cyclones, droughts and other extreme weather events will become more common. [Source: Ursula Schaefer-Preuss and Emil Salim, Jakarta Post, April 29, 2009, Dr. Ursula Schaefer-Preuss is Vice-President of Knowledge Management and Sustainable Development at the Asian Development Bank. Dr. Emil Salim is an economist and a former Indonesian Minister of State for Population and the Environment]
Ursula Schaefer-Preuss and Emil Salim wrote in the Jakarta Post: By the end of the century, temperatures in Southeast Asia will dramatically rise. Sea levels could rise 70 centimeters or more, inundating entire islands and low-lying coastal areas. Health threats will also rise, with deaths from cardiovascular and respiratory disease, malaria, and dengue increasing - all because of climate change. As is the case with most disasters, it is the poorest who will suffer the most.
Southeast Asia only produced 12 percent of the world's greenhouse gasses at the turn of the century, but the region's rapidly expanding population and economy means its global share of carbon emissions will increase in the future if no action is taken. The report notes that the forestry sector is the largest contributor to Southeast Asia's GHG emissions, and land use change therefore holds the key to successful emissions reduction in the region.
AFP reported: “Climate change is "a wild card for Asian development", warned an Asian Development Bank study, which stressed that Asia is already hit by more storms, floods and other natural disasters than any other region. Climate change threatens to melt the glaciers that run from the Himalayas and other mountain ranges to feed Asia's major rivers, which provide water, food, fish and power for 2.8 billion people, it said. "Climate change will affect everyone. With over half the world's population, Asia has more at stake than any other region," said the study. [Source: Frank Zeller, AFP, August 1, 2011]
Asia’s Greenhouse Gas Emissions
Asia’s Contribution to Global Emissions: Asia produces more than half of the world’s greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Rapid industrialization, economic growth, urbanization, and rising energy demand have made the region the largest source of global emissions. Coal and other fossil fuels remain the dominant energy sources in many Asian countries, contributing significantly to carbon dioxide emissions. [Source: Asian Development Bank]
Major Sources of Emissions: The energy sector is the largest source of greenhouse gases in Asia, accounting for about 77 to 78 percent of regional emissions through the burning of coal, oil, and natural gas for electricity and heat. Agriculture contributes about 10 to 11 percent of emissions, primarily through methane released by livestock and flooded rice paddies. Industrial processes, including steel, cement, and other manufacturing industries, generate another 8 to 9 percent of regional emissions.
Leading Contributors: China is by far the largest emitter in Asia and has accounted for roughly two-thirds of the region’s increase in greenhouse gas emissions. Its emissions are driven largely by heavy industry, manufacturing, and coal-fired power generation. South Asia and Southeast Asia have also experienced rapid increases in emissions as their populations, economies, and energy consumption have expanded, contributing about 19 percent and 15 percent, respectively, of the region’s overall increase.
Future Challenges: Asia’s growing population, expanding cities, and rising demand for electricity, transportation, and manufactured goods are expected to keep energy consumption high. Many countries are increasing investments in renewable energy and energy efficiency, but coal and other fossil fuels continue to play a major role in meeting electricity demand. Reducing emissions while maintaining economic growth remains one of the region’s major environmental and economic challenges.
Southeast Asia's Greenhouse Gas Emissions
Regional Greenhouse Gas Emissions: Southeast Asia is a significant net source of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Recent regional assessments have estimated that the region releases about 3.2 to 3.4 billion metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO e) into the atmosphere each year. Emissions are driven by a combination of land-use change, deforestation, peatland degradation, forest fires, and growing fossil fuel consumption. [Source: ScienceDirect.com]
Land Use and Deforestation: The largest historical source of greenhouse gas emissions in Southeast Asia has been the clearing of tropical rainforests for agriculture, plantations, and other development. The destruction of forests releases large amounts of carbon stored in vegetation and soils. Peatland drainage is another major contributor, accounting for up to 46 percent of land-use emissions in some areas. When peatlands are drained and dried, the organic material decomposes, releasing large quantities of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere.
Forest and Peat Fires: Forest and peatland fires are another major source of greenhouse gases. These fires become especially severe during El Niño years, when prolonged dry conditions make forests and peatlands more susceptible to burning. Peat fires can smolder underground for long periods, releasing large amounts of carbon dioxide, methane, and smoke that contribute to regional haze and poor air quality.
Energy and Industrial Emissions: Rapid economic growth, industrialization, and urbanization have greatly increased Southeast Asia's demand for energy. Although oil was once the region's primary fossil fuel, coal use expanded rapidly after 2005, and by 2018 coal had surpassed oil as the largest source of energy-related emissions. Despite growing investment in renewable energy, fossil fuels continue to dominate electricity generation in many Southeast Asian countries, causing energy-related greenhouse gas emissions to continue rising.
Asia Vulnerability to Higher Climate-Change Temperatures
A 2017 report by the Asian Development Bank (ADB) and the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) warned that Asia and the Pacific could face severe environmental, economic, and social impacts if greenhouse gas emissions continued to rise. The report concluded that without strong efforts to reduce emissions and adapt to climate change, the region would experience higher temperatures, more powerful storms, changing rainfall patterns, lower agricultural productivity, widespread coral reef loss, and increased pressure on water resources. [Source: Thin Lei Win, Reuters, July 14, 2017]
The report emphasized the importance of fully implementing the 2015 Paris Agreement, which aims to limit climate change to 1.5 to 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. It warned that if emissions continued on their existing path, average global temperatures could rise by more than 4 degrees Celsius by the end of the century, while parts of Asia and the Pacific could warm by as much as 6 degrees Celsius. Some inland regions, including Tajikistan, Afghanistan, Pakistan, and northwestern China, could experience temperature increases of up to 8 degrees Celsius.
Scientists projected that higher temperatures would alter weather patterns, reduce crop yields, damage fisheries, and threaten biodiversity. Rising sea levels, stronger storms, and more frequent extreme weather events were also expected to increase the risk of flooding, droughts, and population displacement. The report warned that these changes could slow economic development, increase poverty, and, in some cases, threaten the long-term viability of the most vulnerable countries.
The Asia-Pacific region contains about two-thirds of the world's population and includes many of the countries most exposed to natural hazards. Although the region had experienced rapid economic growth, millions of people remained vulnerable to climate-related disasters and poverty. The report concluded that rapid investment in renewable energy, low-carbon technologies, and climate adaptation would be essential to reduce future risks. The Asian Development Bank announced plans to invest US$4 billion by 2020 to support renewable energy and environmentally sustainable development across the region.
Asia’s Economic Centers Vulnerable to Rising Sea Levels and Floods
A 2015 Associated Press report examined how climate change could affect Asia's rapidly growing coastal cities. Rising sea levels, stronger storm surges, heavier rainfall, and more frequent flooding were expected to increase risks for many of the region's largest urban centers. Scientists projected that average global sea levels could rise by about 1 meter (3 feet) during the 21st century, although some long-term projections were considerably higher. The extent of future sea-level rise would depend partly on global efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.[Source: Associated Press, December 10, 2015]
Many of the world's largest and fastest-growing cities are located in Asia. By the mid-2020s, most of the world's megacities—urban areas with populations exceeding 10 million—were expected to be in Asia. Cities such as Dhaka, Mumbai, Manila, Shanghai, Jakarta, Hong Kong, Kolkata, and Hanoi play central roles in their national economies but also contain large populations living in low-lying coastal areas that are highly vulnerable to flooding.
Studies estimated that flooding in coastal cities already caused about US$6 billion in global economic losses each year and projected that these losses could increase substantially by 2050 without improved adaptation measures. Climate change also threatened infrastructure, housing, transportation systems, ports, and industrial facilities. Rising sea levels and more intense storms were expected to increase both economic losses and the risk of population displacement.
Many Asian cities also faced challenges from rapid urbanization. Large numbers of migrants settled in flood-prone neighborhoods with inadequate drainage, housing, and sanitation. In cities such as Mumbai and Dhaka, millions of people lived in informal settlements that were especially vulnerable to flooding and storm damage. Environmental experts argued that continued construction in low-lying coastal areas and floodplains increased future climate risks.
Climate Change Could Spawn Mass Migrations in Asia
In March 2012, AP reported: The Asian Development Bank is warning countries to prepare for influxes of people fleeing natural disasters as climate change exacerbates rising sea levels, soil degradation and seasonal flooding. It said that one-third of Southeast Asia's population lives in at-risk areas, including Indonesia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam. Six of the 10 countries most vulnerable to climate change are in the Asia-Pacific. Bangladesh tops the list followed by India, Nepal, the Philippines, Afghanistan and Myanmar. [Source: AP, March 13, 2012]
"Given that climate change acts as an aggravating factor for environmental degradation, it is expected to boost the number of people migrating because of environmental changes, both sudden and slow onset. Though the amplitude of these movements remains difficult to forecast, climate change is likely to become a major driver of migration in the 21st century," the report said.
It cited the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, a U.N. network of 2,000 scientists, as saying that the Asia-Pacific will bear the brunt of significant temperature increases, changing rainfall patterns, greater monsoon variability, sea-level rise, floods, and more intense tropical cyclones. Most scientists expect such changes to accompany a rise in the planet's temperature caused in part by greenhouse gasses from burning fossil fuels for electricity and transport.
The region is particularly vulnerable because of its high population density and long coastlines. Recent examples of such migration include Papua New Guinea, where residents of Carteret and neighboring atolls moved to the island of Bougainville because of rising sea levels. In 2010, more than 10 million Pakistanis were displaced by monsoon rains and flooding along the Indus River basin, and last year, a typhoon ravaged the southern Philippines, displacing more than 300,000 people.
Response to Climate Change in Asia
Some governments responded by investing in climate adaptation and resilient infrastructure. Shanghai, for example, built more than 520 kilometers (320 miles) of seawalls and flood-control structures to protect against typhoons and rising sea levels. Other cities improved drainage systems, sewage treatment, and flood management to reduce climate-related risks and make urban areas more attractive to investors. [Source: Associated Press, December 10, 2015]
Business groups, financial institutions, and international organizations increasingly recognized that climate resilience had become an economic issue as well as an environmental one. Studies suggested that cities better prepared for climate change would be more attractive for investment, while those that failed to adapt could face greater economic losses and declining competitiveness. The Asian Development Bank estimated that climate change could reduce Southeast Asia's potential gross domestic product by about 11 percent during the 21st century if effective adaptation and mitigation measures were not implemented.
The Asian Development Bank's 2009 report, 'The Economics of Climate Change in Southeast Asia', A Regional Review, explains that countries do not have to choose between addressing the financial crisis or climate change. Failure to address either threat would have catastrophic consequences. If the world continues with 'business as usual', Southeast Asian nations could experience combined damages equivalent to over 6 percent of their gross domestic product each year, dwarfing the costs of the current financial crisis. These nations should address the dual threats of the financial crisis and climate change by introducing effective green stimulus programmes as part of larger financial stimulus packages. These programmes could simultaneously shore up economies, create jobs, reduce poverty, lower carbon emissions and prepare nations for the worst effects of climate change. This would involve improving water management, preparing the agricultural sector for the impacts of climate change, safeguarding forests and coastal resources, and preventing infectious disease outbreaks. [Source: Ursula Schaefer-Preuss and Emil Salim, Jakarta Post, April 29, 2009]
Green Stimulus for Southeast Asia
Ursula Schaefer-Preuss and Emil Salim wrote in the Jakarta Post: “Hundreds of islands in Indonesia and the Philippines, large swaths of VietNam's Mekong Delta, and great portions of Thailand and Singapore's sovereign territory are all under imminent threat. Why, then, the deafening silence? Why no call for urgent action? Perhaps it is because the foe is not a sovereign state, but climate change. [Source: Ursula Schaefer-Preuss and Emil Salim, Jakarta Post, April 29, 2009, Dr. Ursula Schaefer-Preuss is Vice-President of Knowledge Management and Sustainable Development at the Asian Development Bank. Dr. Emil Salim is an economist and a former Indonesian Minister of State for Population and the Environment] As good global citizens, these nations will also increasingly be responsible for curbing the emission of greenhouse gases (GHGs) that cause climate change.
The Asian Development Bank. report notes that the forestry sector is the largest contributor to Southeast Asia's GHG emissions, and land use change therefore holds the key to successful emissions reduction in the region. This can be achieved by reducing deforestation and land degradation, encouraging the planting of new forests and reforestation, and improving forest management. The energy sector also offers vast, untapped opportunities for emissions reduction. Energy efficiency improvement will allow Southeast Asian nations to mitigate their CO2 emissions as much as 40 percent by 2020. This 'win-win' measure can actually be implemented at a negative net cost, with energy cost savings outweighing the expense of mitigation.
Other important emissions-reducing measures include cleaner transport solutions, sustainable farm management, and the increased use of renewable energy sources like wind, biomass and solar. Implementing these measures would require the development of comprehensive policy frameworks, incentives for private-sector action, elimination of market distortions -and ample financial resources.
International funding and technology transfers will be essential for success, as will regional cooperation, particularly in dealing with cross-boundary issues associated with climate change, such as water resources management, natural disasters, and disease outbreaks. Many of these measures can be implemented immediately, as components of broader fiscal stimulus packages, creating much-needed jobs for the region's people.
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Last updated June 2026